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Hillary ClintonAs the race for the White House continues in the United States, we at the Zambian Chronicle are throwing our weight behind the former US First Lady, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton from New York.  

Our endorsement for Mrs. Clinton comes after careful consideration as Super Tuesday approaches.  

While we realize that the race may not be over after Super Tuesday, we acknowledge the fact that she is best suited to be Commander in Chief and leader of the free world compared to any other candidate from either party. 

This US election is unique in all aspects as the front runners are. Senator Hillary R Clinton (NY) would be the first woman President if elected, Senator Barack Obama (IL) would be the first Black President if elected, and Senator John McCain (AZ) would be the oldest President if elected while former Governor Mitt Romney (MA) would be the first Mormon if elected. 

We believe Mrs. Clinton will eventually get her party’s nomination for the following reasons. She currently leads her rival in national polls by an average of 9% on aggregate from all available data. 

As of this publication she has 261 delegates while Senator Barack Obama from the land of Lincoln, (Illinois) holds 190. To secure the nomination, a candidate will need 2,025 and here is how we see Mrs. Clinton reaching that magic number. 

Forty (40) % of those delegates will come from what are called Super delegates who are senior party leaders from all states and that number comes to 810 or close thereby.  

These have the prerogative to choose any candidate and thus have the propensity to go for the establishment candidate as opposed to the populist one. Mrs. Clinton is more of an establishment candidate than her rival is. 

Despite the fact that delegates from Florida (she carried it by 50% of the vote) and Michigan (she carried it by 55% of the vote) are currently not included in the above count attributed to her. 

She won both those states in land slide victories and as such the super delegates would feel more obligated to reward her for that during the convention.

Clinton country includes New Mexico which has the highest proportion of Latinos in the United States — something that could bode well for Hillary Clinton.

In New York, Hillary Clinton’s home state, almost half of voters identify themselves as Democrats she has 232 delegates at stake but playing on home turf makes it easier for her.

Since becoming a state, Alaska has never held a presidential primary, choosing rather to hold caucuses. Name recognition will be Mrs. Clinton’s asset there. 

American Samoa which participates in the Democratic and Republican nomination processes but does not participate in the general election holds the Alaskan dichotomy which may help her as well, so we expect her to win there.

Arkansas is likely to go her way since she was the former first lady for the same state when her husband was governor before becoming President of the United States.

California has a reputation for being heavily Democratic, mainly due to large metropolitan areas such as Los Angeles (mayor campaigning for Hillary) and San Francisco.  

With 370 delegates, California offers the largest boast despite the derivatives from the Kennedy family establishment and endorsements. Its delegates account for 22% of all delegates up for grabs on Super Tuesday.

Colorado is believed to be the rising political star and with strength from the Latino community Mrs. Clinton’s competitive increases because she fares well among such demographics.

Delaware is considered one of the best bellwether states in presidential politics and usually votes for the establishment. Idaho holds its Democratic caucuses looks favorable to Mrs. Clinton. Hispanics are a growing political voting bloc there.

A large number of Latinos now work in meatpacking factory towns in Kansas, and Hispanics accounted for nearly half of Kansas’ population growth in the 1990s, these are Mrs. Clinton’s to take.

Montana was one of the most Democratic states in the Rocky Mountain West, electing only Democratic senators from 1952 to 1988 and is likely to go for Mrs. Clinton.

New Jersey as a state has now voted Democratic in four straight presidential elections and is neighbors with her home state thus likely to be Clinton country while New Mexico has the highest proportion of Latinos in the United States, we know what to expect there.

North Dakota has two Democratic senators and a Democratic member of the House and the local establishment goes traditional. Oklahoma, Utah and West Virginia’s coal-mining heritage are heavily unionized and likely to go for Mrs. Clinton.

Obama country will consist of Alabama which is likely to lean his way. African-Americans made up 47 percent of Georgia’s 2004 Democratic primary electorate and going by recent history from South Carolina, this too will be Obama country.  

Georgia has more African-Americans than any other state except Texas and New York, and could soon surpass them. Georgia and her governor who has endorsed the Senator are Obama’s to take.  

Senator Obama’s home state of Illinois has increasingly become a Democratic stronghold in presidential politics and with 153 delegates in play, he would easily win it.  

Massachusetts is a major Obama stronghold going by endorsements from both Senators John F Kerry and Ted Kennedy who come from there.

Minnesota, long seen as a bastion of liberalism, has become much more of a battleground recently but is likely to be Obama country.  

In Missouri, African-Americans made up 23 percent of the state’s 2004 Democratic primary electorate and almost four in 10 voters in the 2004 Democratic primary came from a household where someone belonged to a union – thus likely to be Obama country as former Edward’s supporters shift camp.

Over half of Tennessee’s 2004 Democratic primary electorate was African American and the Obama camp has made several inroads there, therefore we can easily say might go his way.

Other states include those hard to call states like Arizona. Maricopa County, which includes Phoenix, is home to over 60 percent of Arizona’s registered voters. The Governor there has endorsed Senator Obama.

Connecticut was one of Bill Clinton’s few defeats during the 1992 primary, where he was narrowly beaten by Jerry Brown, 37 percent to 36 percent.

And then we have other delegate rich states coming in March such as Texas, Maryland and Pennsylvania; these currently favor Mrs. Clinton. After Super Tuesday, she would have acquired even more delegates giving her the required momentum.

So, while others may say this race for the Democratic Party nominee as too close to call, our calculus leads us to Senator Hillary R Clinton (NY) as the eventual nominee and subsequently the next President of the United State of America.

We wish Senator Barack Obama (IL) well in the race and we are very impressed with his campaign – his having run a terrific campaign has made our race proud.

Our natural inclination would have led us to endorse him (Senator Barack Obama) based on even racial affiliations even but over here at the Chronicle we revel more in logic and intellectual honesty than all else.

classy-daddy-3.gifAs for the Republicans, we believe Senator John McCain will be their party nominee but, he literary has no chance against the Democrats who might end up feathering their “Dream Team” of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama as the running mate.

To win the presidency, all Mrs. Clinton needs to do is carry all the states that voted Democratic in 2,004 and add Ohio with one swing state like New Mexico and the rest will be history …

That is this week’s memo from us at the Zambian Chronicle … thanks a trillion.

Brainwave R Mumba, Sr.

CEO & President – Zambian Chronicle

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