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It is almost a year ago today and the Zambian Enterprise had a month and half count down to the general elections which were held on September 28th, 2006. The tripartite elections were to usher in a new executive, legislature and council officials.

Tensions in some areas were extremely high; some beyond stress levels among some political pundits and my columned article to then Zambia Online blog emphasized the need for a consolidated opposition caucus.

I decreed then that the Power of incumbency (POI) was the hardest to break and that going in election HE had at least 38% of the general populace vote with a +/- 5% margin of error.

The margin of error meant that should I error on the positive, the incumbent would win by (38 + 5) % resulting in 43% overall win and the reverse resultant would have been (38 – 5) % being 33% of the overall vote. As the results would show the incumbent won with an overwhelming 42.1% right within the margin of error.

So what is the outlook for 2,011? You always need at least 10 to 12 months after an election to objectively gauge the mood of the losers, watch their trends and reaction to the losses. Having been paying a lot of attention to those, we can easily look at a few things that might augment into the opposition status quo before the next general elections.

To start with, UDA might not survive at all … it is destined to die and UPND will continue to dwindle and eventually would become a non-entity before the next general elections should they continue on the current path. This is a sad reality for some of us, but we always delve into intellectual honesty above all else.

ULP if it ever worked its way forward might end up replacing UPND as it continues to move towards its original organic stage Pre-Mazoka. It can actually be a strong force to reckon with should it continue working closely with PF. That leaves FDD with dynamics of euphemisms and might as well join forces to where it could identify itself with ULP-PF party structures.

My UNIP might decide to go it alone next time around and so will UPND. UNIP might want to solicite Wezi Kaunda to lead it instead of Tilyenji next time around. It also needs to start mobilizing its base now as opposed to what it did in the past and its future will be brighter than ever before.

These are the most plausible scenarios given the current climate. Can things change, you bet they can!!! Do we see a strong opposition in time for the next general elections, you bet we do but unless one unified front comes up dissimilar to the last weak alliances we were treated to last time around, the MMD might win the next election with bigger margins next time … thanks a trillion.

Brainwave R Mumba, Sr. 

CEO & President – Zambian Chronicle 

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